TRC

Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) Scenario Analysis Analysis (2026)

Invetso Score: 5/10 — Balanced · Last Updated: 2026-08-01

Overall Score

Base Case

TRC trades at 7.77x sales and 29.98x EBITDA, implying the market is still pricing in a steady but not high-growth outcome.

Liquidity remains solid with a 2.92 current ratio and 2.06 quick ratio, supporting a stable operating base.

Profitability is modest, with 10.6% net margin and 1.27% ROE, but operating return on assets is slightly negative.

Upside Case

If TRC can convert its 31.31% EBITDA margin into sustained operating cash flow, the current valuation could be justified.

The company’s low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20 leaves room for execution upside if earnings improve.

A stronger conversion of revenue into free cash flow would materially improve the scenario outlook.

Downside Case

Free cash flow is negative at -$25.75M TTM and free cash flow yield is -5.83%, creating downside if capital intensity stays elevated.

Interest coverage and debt-service coverage are both reported at 0, which increases sensitivity to any earnings or cash flow disappointment.

Net debt to EBITDA of 5.17x suggests leverage could become a concern if operating performance weakens.

Sources

  • Company filings (10-K, 10-Q, investor presentations)
  • Financial and market data providers
  • Public news and industry information

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