Bull Case

Office leasing stabilizes and selective renewals improve occupancy, lifting same-store NOI versus peers that remain more exposed to weaker urban demand.

Asset sales at favorable cap rates reduce leverage, lowering interest burden and improving cash flow more quickly than highly levered office peers.

Cost cuts and lower vacancy-related expenses offset modest rent pressure, allowing margins to recover from negative operating levels.

Capital markets reopen for quality office assets, enabling refinancing on less punitive terms than distressed peers and reducing near-term balance-sheet risk.

Base Case

Leasing activity remains uneven, so occupancy and NOI improve only gradually, leaving EQC behind diversified REIT peers with steadier cash generation.

Asset dispositions continue to fund debt reduction, but proceeds are partly offset by refinancing costs and limited operating improvement.

Negative operating margins narrow modestly as expense control helps, yet high leverage keeps interest coverage weak relative to better-capitalized peers.

Portfolio performance stays bifurcated by market, producing a slow recovery path that is more resilient than distressed peers but still constrained.

Bear Case

Office demand weakens further, pushing vacancies higher and pressuring rents more than peers with mixed-use or industrial exposure.

Refinancing remains expensive or unavailable, so high leverage and zero interest coverage amplify liquidity stress versus stronger balance sheets.

Asset sales clear at discounted prices, reducing NAV and limiting debt paydown while operating cash flow stays negative.

Tenant downsizing and lease roll risk accelerate, causing NOI erosion that overwhelms cost cuts and delays any meaningful recovery.

Overall Score

EQC’s forward path is dominated by office-demand recovery and balance-sheet repair, leaving it more constrained than stronger REIT peers despite some asset-sale flexibility.