Bull Case

Eurozone and Mexico loan growth reaccelerates while deposit costs stay contained, lifting net interest income and keeping BBVA ahead of most large European peers.

Credit quality remains benign and cost of risk stays low, allowing operating leverage to expand pre-provision profit faster than domestic-focused rivals.

Capital generation stays robust and excess distributions continue, supporting valuation rerating versus peers with weaker payout capacity or slower capital accretion.

Turkey and other higher-volatility exposures stabilize, reducing earnings drag and making group results more resilient than in prior cycles.

Base Case

Moderate loan growth in Spain and Mexico offsets slower rate tailwinds, preserving earnings momentum and keeping BBVA above many euro-area peers on profitability.

Net interest income normalizes from peak rate benefits, but disciplined pricing and cost control sustain returns better than most large universal banks.

Credit costs drift higher from very low levels yet remain manageable, limiting downside to group earnings and supporting steady capital generation.

Capital returns remain solid and the franchise keeps a valuation premium to weaker peers, though upside is capped by slower macro growth and mix effects.

Bear Case

A sharper slowdown in Spain, Mexico, or Turkey raises loan-loss provisions and compresses earnings, eroding BBVA's advantage versus more diversified peers.

Deposit competition intensifies and funding costs rise faster than asset yields, squeezing net interest margins and reducing operating leverage.

Regulatory or macro stress in Turkey creates outsized volatility, offsetting stronger performance elsewhere and weakening group-level capital generation.

If credit deterioration persists, BBVA's valuation discount to stronger peers widens as investors price lower sustainable returns and higher earnings volatility.

Overall Score

BBVA's most probable path remains strong versus peers, with resilient profitability and capital generation offsetting slower rate tailwinds and moderate macro sensitivity.