AGL

agilon health, inc. (AGL) Scenario Analysis Analysis (2026)

Invetso Score: 5/10 — Balanced · Last Updated: 2026-08-01

Overall Score

Base Case

Valuation remains very low on sales at 0.24x EV/Sales TTM, but profitability is still negative with a -4.2% net margin and -0.90 ROIC TTM.

Liquidity is adequate but not strong, with a 1.08 current ratio and cash per share of 11.11 against ongoing negative operating cash flow.

Balance sheet leverage is modest, with debt-to-equity at 0.15 and net debt to EBITDA at 0.32, but earnings quality remains weak at 0.31.

Bull Case

A recovery scenario would rely on margin normalization from current negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

The company’s low EV/Sales multiple and modest debt load could allow meaningful rerating if cash flow turns positive.

Bear Case

The bear case centers on continued losses, with negative net income, operating income, and free cash flow TTM.

Cash conversion remains weak, and the company’s interest coverage and operating cash flow coverage are both negative.

Sources

  • Company filings (10-K, 10-Q, investor presentations)
  • Financial and market data providers
  • Public news and industry information

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